Markets Insight: Volatility overview Vol 9


MetalSwap Insight - Vol.9

February is proving to be an extremely positive month for both traditional and crypto markets.
In this Volatility Overview, we aim to bring order to the recent weeks of trading and understand the reasons behind this generalized uptrend.

Commodities Market Overview - Have We Found a Bottom?

Invesco Commodity ETF

After a long series of red weeks that led the reference Commodity ETF to lose over 15% of its value in just over three months, it seems the market has found a pause where volatility, both upward and downward, has decreased. What seems to be forming is a bottom construct, though we have learned that periods of low volatility can always end and give way to price explosions, either upward or downward.

This price action is almost opposite to that of the more general ETFs, such as S&P 500 and WVCE, which are both at all-time highs.

S&P 500 price action

According to data from Index Mundi, Soybean Meal and Cocoa Beans have been the best-performing commodities in the last 30 days, both reporting increases of over 10%. Meanwhile, the least performing asset has lost a staggering 15% and was coal.

Analysis of Assets on MetalSwap's dApp

The positive momentum of the crypto market is continuing. The main driver of this uptrend is once again Bitcoin and its spot ETFs, which continue to buy BTC on the market, thereby driving up the price.


Bitcoin - Positive Trend Continues as Halving Approaches

Bitcoin price action

In the last week, Bitcoin broke through the $50K threshold per single bitcoin before slightly retracting as shown in the screen above. The last weekly candlestick is one of the most significant in terms of volume and price movement we've seen since this positive period began.

As mentioned earlier, the price of BTC is continuing its rise, mainly due to the buying pressure from various spot ETFs on Bitcoin day after day.

It is estimated that in the last few days of trading, the ETFs alone have bought about 10 times the daily production of new BTC derived from mining.


Ether - Time to outperform?

Ether price action vs Bitcoin

Today, we propose a different chart for the analysis of ETH. Specifically, instead of analyzing its price in dollars, we focus on an analysis that compares it to the price of BTC. As we know, if BTC is having a positive moment, then the entire crypto market will benefit. However, it's important to understand which asset is outperforming the other.

In this sense, 2023 has not been a very good year for ETH as it has almost never outperformed BTC. If we focus more on the recent weeks, this difference becomes even more favorable for BTC.

The question we can now ask is, "Is it time for ETH to outperform BTC, or will this Bitcoin-favorable trend continue?


GOLD - New All-Time Highs

Gold price action

As seen in the last episode of the Volatility Overview, gold recently reached its all-time high at $2145/OZ and then stabilized at very high quotes above $2000/OZ.

At the moment, despite relative stability, the price of gold is influenced by many factors such as US inflation, UK economic data, and geopolitical tensions related to various wars.


OP - Close to All-Time High

OP price action

For OP, this is the first true euphoric phase it encounters in the crypto world. This token was launched in the summer of 2022 and has never encountered bull-run phases like those of 2020 and 2021.

This makes it very difficult to consider price targets within which the token might move.

At the moment, OP seems to aim for new all-time highs, surpassing the one reached in the first weeks of 2024 at $4.2.

OP remains, however, definitely the most volatile asset within the dApp, and in many cases, it has been necessary for users to open hedging positions to cancel out this volatility.


February is proving to be an extremely positive month, with commodities being the only asset class that is showing weakness at this stage.

The goal of the Volatility Overview is precisely to analyze, month by month, the performance of these markets that are very important to MetalSwap and its mission to bring hedging contracts within decentralized finance.


-The DeFi Foundation


✎ What is MetalSwap?

MetalSwap is a decentralized platform that allows Hedging Contract on financial markets with the aim of providing coverage to those who work with Digital Asset and an investment opportunity for those who contribute to increase the shared liquidity of the project. Allowing the protection for an increasing number of operators.

With Hedging Contract we enable hedge swap transactions through the use of Smart Contracts, AMM style.

It's great to Hedge the Risk of Price volatility with MetalSwap dApp !